It uses a technique introduced by economists about ten years ago called an overlapping generations model.
Demographic Trends and Potential Implications for GDP Growth Demographic factors have sometimes occupied center-stage in the discussion of the sources of economic growth. Bythe youth and young adult population share had dropped by over 10 percentage points, while the elderly population share had risen by around 5 percentage points.The model was also used for other European countries, which were assumed to have a state pension with a higher replacement ratio and faster real growth. Ospedali Galliera for their precious cooperation in providing the data. This implies that funded pension schemes as well as unfunded schemes will be affected by demographic change, although the effect on funded schemes will be less. Institut de Recerca en Economia Aplicada. Ageing Horiz. However, fertility rates instead plunged beginning in the s. Medicina delle migrazioni: la salute del migrante e i fattori di rischio associati. Third, under the life-cycle hypothesis, consumption smoothing through the lifetime would imply that people move from being net borrowers in their youth to being net savers in their working years and finally to dis-savers in their elderly years. Dunlop, D. We find that population aging in industrial countries will reduce aggregate growth in these regions over time, but should boost growth in developing countries over the next years, as the relative size of their workingage populations increases. Smith, J. This paper describes a model of the UK economy over the period to , where individuals decide in each year of their working life how much labour to contribute and how much of their earnings to save, given certain desires to balance work and leisure and to save to provide for their retirement. This paper describes the main mechanisms through which demographic change may affect economic outcomes, and estimates the association between changes in the share of working-age population with per capita growth, savings, and poverty rate.
Verbrugge, L. Health Sci. BMC Health Serv.Notes Acknowledgments The authors would like to thank E. Gravelle, H. However, fertility rates instead plunged beginning in the s. Wealth stocks would tend to rise with the proportion of the population who are in their 50s and 60s, who have the largest wealth stocks according to the model. The interaction of the labour market and savings as affected by demographic shift have effects beyond pensions, but they are crucial to pensions, both funded and paygo. An increase of one percentage point in the working-age population share is found to be associated with an increase in gross domestic product per capita growth by more than one percentage point, with similarly positive effects on savings and poverty reduction. Afilalo, J.
Notes Acknowledgments The authors would like to thank E. Sensitivity analyses were performed which did not affect the overall pattern of results.
This paper describes the main mechanisms through which demographic change may affect economic outcomes, and estimates the association between changes in the share of working-age population with per capita growth, savings, and poverty rate. This paper examines the implications of such transition over the next 80 years for Japan, the United States, other industrial countries, and the developing regions of the world using a dynamic intertemporal general equilibrium four-country model containing demographics calibrated to the "medium variant" of the United Nations population projections.
Institut de Recerca en Economia Aplicada. However, fertility rates instead plunged beginning in the s.Derose, K. The share of the world's total population over the age 65 rose from 5 percent in to above 8 percent in , and is expected to nearly double to around 15 percent by Mustard, C. Gravelle, H. The global fertility rate defined as births per woman , which was between 5 and 6 before , declined below 3 in and is projected to be only around 2 by Sensitivity analyses were performed which did not affect the overall pattern of results. Zuckerman, S. Dang, T. The model was also used for other European countries, which were assumed to have a state pension with a higher replacement ratio and faster real growth. Bamezai, A.
In the 18th century, Thomas Malthus made the pessimistic forecast that GDP growth per capita would fall due to a continued rapid increase in world population.